Markets Gobble Up Good Housing News, Rates, Freddy Mac Commentary about 2015
November 22, 2014
Customer Service is a Philosophy, not a Department
ByAaron HeimowitzNational Presidents Club 2001-2014
Top 10 Loan Originators" Aaron Heimowitz
Home Mortgage Consultant
Wells Fargo Home Mortgage
NMLSR ID: 404370
For the week of Nov 24, 2014 --- Vol. 12, Issue 47
2015 Economic Outlook per FreddieMac; Rates Freddie Mac November U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook The Purchase Market StrengthensMCLEAN, VA--(Marketwired - Nov 17, 2014) - Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) released today its U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for November showing that the home purchase market is expected to continue strengthening along with the broader economy during 2015. A video preview, along with the complete November 2014 U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook and forecast table, is available here.
Outlook Highlights Expect to see interest rates climb throughout 2015, with yields on the 10-year Treasury averaging about 2.9 percentage points, up from about 2.6 percentage points in 2014, and rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage gradually climbing, averaging 4.6 percent and rising to 5.0 percent by the end of next year. Projecting annual house price gains to slow from 9.3 percent in 2013, to 4.5 percent in 2014 and 3.0 percent in 2015. Continued house price appreciation and rising mortgage rates will dampen homebuyer affordability. Historically speaking, that's moving from very high levels of affordability to high levels of affordability. Forecasting total housing starts to increase by 20 percent from 2014 to 2015 and expecting to see total home sales to increase by about 5 percent over that time period to the best sales pace in eight years. Expect single-family originations to fall an additional 8 percent from 2014 to 2015 to $1.1 trillion annualized as increases in purchase-money lending are insufficient to offset a drop in refinance. Refinance is expected to make up just 23 percent of originations in 2015. Multifamily mortgage originations have risen about 60 percent between 2011 and 2014, and further increases in volume are anticipated in 2015, up about 14 percent in 2015 over 2014. Quote
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist."The good news for 2015 is that the U.S. economy appears well poised to sustain about a 3 percent growth rate in 2015 -- only the second year in the past decade with growth at that pace or better. There are several reasons for the better macroeconomic performance. Governmental fiscal drag has turned into fiscal stimulus, lower energy costs support consumer spending and business investment, further easing of credit conditions for business and real estate lending support commerce and development, and more upbeat consumer and business confidence, all of which portend faster economic growth in 2015. And with that, the economy will produce more and better-paying jobs, providing the financial wherewithal to support household formations and housing activity."Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is one of the largest sources of financing for multifamily housing. Additional information is available at FreddieMac.com, Twitter @FreddieMac and Freddie Mac's blog.
Football Pick Contest Week # 12 Starts this Sunday. Get your picks in before Saturday midnight. ~Pick of the Pros Football Contest. Our “Pick of the Pros” is back for the 24th year. The campaign runs through 12/6. Your goal is to pick as many winning football teams as you can each week for a chance to win prizes. Please register and pick your teams at:
Wellsfargo.com/PickofthePros or https://pickpros.wf.com/The Branch ID is Q6Q56SMust have picks in before the games start! Weekly Winners: Week one: Other WF HMC
Week two: Joanne Strausman of Gloria Nilson in PJ
Week three: Jim Lessing of Gloria Nilson Robbinsville
Week four: Barbara Berger of Gloria Nilson, PJ
Week five: Other WF HMC
Week six: Barbara Berger wins again!
Week seven: Joanne Strausman has two wins also
Week eight: Other WF HMC
Week nine: Jim Lessing of Gloria Nilson
Week ten: Other WF HMC
Week eleven: Other WF HMC
I work when you work -Preapprovals Weekends, Evenings - when YOU need it! IF YOU HAVE A BUYER USING Wells Fargo for their home financing but it is not a local loan officer, may I ask that you re-direct them to me? This applies to "relocation" buyers also. Your buyer will get better service locally and you will have someone to contact for any questions 24/7. _Current Mortgage Rates/Purchase and NEW applications ONLY30 yr fx CONF – 4.125% 30 Yr Fixed Police/Fire: 3.53%15 yr fx – CONF - 3.250%7/1 arm - CONF – 3.250% 30 fix FHA - 3.875%5/1 arm FHA/VA – 3.25% 30 Yr Fix – Non-Conf/Jumbo – 3.875%Rate assumptions: New application not previously locked, 60 day rate locks on purchase loan, non-condo. For Conv loans <$250,000, credit scores <740 and Condos may have higher rates; Non-conf rate score>780 and WF direct draw of WF account, Minimum 700 score for Weekend Special Rebate; VA: 0% down payment & 640 score. Rates shown are local market rates, not national rates or rates tied to national incentives which can be found at www.wellsfargo.com - New applications or floating rates only!~In This Issue... Last Week in Review: The housing sector continues to improve, as home loan rates remain near annual lows.
Forecast for the Week: Look for news on housing, inflation, consumer confidence and the state of our economy—all ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
View: Get more from your lunch hour with these great tips. Last Week in Review Time is on our side. Time continues to be on the side of potential homebuyers, as home loan rates remain near 18-month lows. But could a hint of inflation be creeping into our economy—and if so, could higher home loan rates be on the horizon?
The housing sector continues to be a bright spot, as Existing Home Sales in October reached their best level since September 2013, coming in at 5.26 million units. Low home loan rates and an improving job market are two key factors that drove buyer decisions.
There was also a double dose of good news on the builder side. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, reached their highest level since November of last year. And the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported that its November Housing Market Index rebounded to 58, up four points from October. The NAHB Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales, and readings over 50 are seen as positive.
The one downside from the housing sector came from October Housing Starts, which declined from September. It's important to note that within the report, starts for single family homes increased 4.2 percent, while multi-family dwellings fell by 15.4 percent. More housing reports are ahead in the coming week. Will they also signal a continued recovery in the housing sector?
And there's another thing to watch in the next week, as Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed's favorite measure of inflation) will be released. While inflation on the consumer side via the Consumer Price Index remained tame in October, wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected. While one month doesn't constitute a trend—and expectations are for inflation to remain cool—remember that inflation is bad for Bonds, as it impacts the value of fixed investments like Bonds. This means inflation can also cause home loan rates to worsen, as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds.
The bottom line is that at this time, home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients. Forecast for the Week A slew of economic reports will be released Tuesday and Wednesday, as the markets are closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving. Both Stocks and Bonds will also be closing early on Friday. Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter will be released on Tuesday. This is the second of three estimates for the quarter.Housing data will be plentiful. On Tuesday, look for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales for October will be released on Wednesday.We'll get a sense of how consumers are feeling with November's Consumer Confidence reading on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Wednesday.Also on Wednesday, look for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, Personal Spending, the inflation-measuring Personal Consumption Expenditures, and manufacturing news via Chicago PMI.Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further—a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have improved recently. Home loan rates remain near 18-month lows.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 21, 2014)
The Mortgage Market Guide View... Productivity Points
5 Ways to Spend Your Lunch Hour
SUCCESS Magazine recently asked several entrepreneurs from the Young Entrepreneur Council to share how they get more out of their lunch hour each day. Here are five of their answers.
1. Unplug completely. When you give yourself a break to clear your head, you'll feel more energized and may get fresh ideas. Changing gears with a book, a funny podcast or inspiring interview can also help refresh your perspective, especially on hectic days.
2. Step away from the computer. While you eat, give yourself some quiet time to write down goals, update your to do list, or plan task completion. This can ensure you finish the day strong.
3. Watch something educational. Instead of trying to multitask with a working lunch, hit rewind and watch a video on Fora.tv or take a class on Lynda.com or Khan Academy.
4. Meet someone new. Don't turn down lunch or coffee with someone who wants to meet with you. Lunch is the perfect way to meet new contacts, discover opportunities, share your projects, or get someone else's advice on a business problem.
5. Go outside. Studies show that long periods of sitting can be harmful to your health. A little fresh air can go a long way, but add a short, brisk walk and you've got the perfect tonic for a powerful second act in the afternoon.
As always, feel free to share these great tips with your team, clients and colleagues.
Source: SUCCESS Magazine, Salary.com, The JAMA Network
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 24 - November 28DateETEconomic Report ForEstimateActualPriorImpactTue. November 2508:30Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Q3NA 3.5%ModerateTue. November 2508:30GDP Chain DeflatorQ3NA 1.3%ModerateTue. November 2509:00S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price IndexSepNA 5.6%ModerateTue. November 2510:00Consumer ConfidenceNovNA 94.5ModerateWed. November 2610:00New Home SalesOctNA 467KModerateWed. November 2610:00Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)NovNA 89.4ModerateWed. November 2609:45Chicago PMINovNA 66.2HIGHWed. November 2608:30Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCEYOYNA 1.5%HIGHWed. November 2608:30Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCEOctNA 0.1%HIGHWed. November 2608:30Personal SpendingOctNA -0.2%ModerateWed. November 2608:30Personal IncomeOctNA 0.2%ModerateWed. November 2608:30Durable Goods OrdersOctNA -1.3%ModerateWed. November 2608:00Jobless Claims (Initial)11/22NA NAModerateWed. November 2610:00Pending Home SalesOctNA 0.3%Moderate
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